Will Labour Market Weakness Push Central Banks to Ease Rates?
Canada’s June employment report revealed a softening labour market. The unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 6.4%, rising 1.4 percentage points since the start of last year. While this trend could support further easing by the Bank of Canada, the report also highlighted a significant concern: wage gains. Average hourly wages rose by…
Read moreAffordable Rental Housing: Solving the Revenue Equation
Canada’s social housing legacy has focused on keeping rents low to make housing affordable. By addressing income challenges with housing solutions, low rents have effectively become a substitute for income support. There is a critical need to support low-income workers to improve their skills and increase their earnings, but we need to address the problem…
Read moreWill Homeowners and Homebuyers See Rate Relief in the Second Half of 2024?
With interest rates falling and home prices expected to rise, prospective homebuyers and homeowners with mortgages coming up for renewal are wondering if relief is in sight. While housing affordability is expected to improve, it is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels. Regional differences will persist, with Ontario and BC remaining prohibitively expensive, while Alberta…
Read moreHas CMHC Missed the Mark?
CMHC estimates that around 3.5 million net new housing units are needed by 2030 to restore affordability. While this figure has garnered significant attention, a recent study by the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) provides another take on this issue. The PBO notes that household formation grew to 460,000 net new households in 2023. Additionally, they…
Read moreShould the Bank of Canada be Concerned About Rising House Prices?
When the Bank of Canada finally decided to cut its policy rate, it expressed concern that such cuts could lead to an overheated housing market. Some real estate industry experts are also forecasting a “material lift” in sales and “accelerated home price appreciation.” Despite these predictions, significant changes in major markets like Toronto are unlikely…
Read moreIs a Tax Credit a Better Way to Support Social Housing?
One of the biggest challenges in Canada’s rental housing crisis is the lack of new affordable housing units being built. Despite efforts through the National Housing Strategy’s five programs, only 17,000 units were delivered after four years. This disappointing outcome is only a modest improvement over Ottawa’s track record in the past 30 years. For…
Read moreLatest US Inflation Numbers are Good News
Paradoxically, good news is often bad news when looking at inflation. Positive trends like strong economic growth, low unemployment and high consumer confidence can have inflationary impacts. In the current environment, such ‘good news’ could lead the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) to delay any planned – and highly anticipated – rate cuts. However, recent…
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