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Canadian Commodity Sectors and the Iran War
Thirty days into the U.S.-Israel air campaign against Iran, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered the largest oil supply disruption in market history, collapsing flows from roughly 20 million barrels per day to a trickle. For Canada, the sectoral impacts are asymmetric: the prospect of significant near-term opportunities tempered by structural bottlenecks…
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Oil Price Shock, Bond Market Volatility, and Canadian Housing Affordability
The recent global oil price shock has introduced a complex set of variables for Canadian monetary policy with direct implications for housing affordability. As oil prices surged above US$100 per barrel in early 2026, the Bank of Canada (BoC) maintained its policy interest rate at 2.25 per cent during its March 18 meeting. While Governor…
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Examining Canada’s Population Contraction
The population estimates released by Statistics Canada on March 19 highlight a dramatic shift in population dynamics. Following years of record expansion, the total population decreased by approximately 103,500 people in the fourth quarter of 2025. This 0.2 per cent contraction marks the first such decline in decades and signals the end of the hyper-growth…
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Canada’s CPI Dips in February with Volatility on the Horizon
Canadian consumer prices rose 0.5 per cent in February, or 0.1 per cent on a seasonally-adjusted basis, pulling the headline inflation rate down five basis points to 1.8 per cent from January’s 2.3 per cent. However, this data predates the onset of the Iran conflict on February 28. Gasoline prices, down 14 per cent year-over-year…
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A Gloomy Start for Canada’s Labour Market
Canada’s labour market deteriorated sharply in February. Employment fell by 83,900 (-0.4 per cent), bringing the two-month cumulative decline to 109,000 jobs. Year-over-year employment growth slowed to just 0.2 per cent, while the unemployment rate rose 20 basis points to 6.7 per cent, even as the labour force participation rate edged down to 64.9 per…
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Development Charges and the Housing Affordability Crisis
When Canadians discuss housing affordability, the conversation typically centres on interest rates, land prices, and construction costs. Yet one of the most significant — and least visible — contributors is development charges (DCs): upfront municipal fees levied on every new residential unit before a single shovel breaks ground. As we have examined in previous analyses,…
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Labour Market Weakness Presents Challenges for the Fed
The February 2026 Non-Farm Payroll report revealed a significant and unexpected contraction in the U.S. labour market, with 92,000 jobs lost—well below economists’ expectations of a 50,000 to 59,000 gain. This marks the third decline in payrolls in the past five months. Key Data Points from February Job Loss: Total non-farm payrolls fell by 92,000, a sharp reversal…
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