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Rethinking CMHC’s Guarantee to Support Housing Delivery
The 2025 federal budget included a significant expansion of the Canada Mortgage Bonds (CMB) program, aimed squarely at increasing housing supply, particularly multi-unit rentals. Beginning in 2026, the annual CMB issuance limit will increase from $60 billion to $80 billion, with the incremental $20 billion dedicated solely to CMHC-insured multi-unit rental projects. This policy shift…
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Geopolitics and Affordability
For homeowners and prospective first-time buyers, interest rates are a key determinant of affordability. While it is unlikely the Bank of Canada will change its current policy stance in the near term, that does not mean interest rates will remain static. The central bank can influence the short end of the yield curve, but longer-term…
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Mixed Inflation Results Will Keep the Bank of Canada Sidelined
Headline CPI inflation edged up slightly to 2.4 per cent year-over-year (y/y) in December, coming in slightly above consensus expectations. The uptick largely reflects base effects from lower prices a year earlier, when the federal government implemented a brief sales tax holiday. The temporary GST/HST exemption in December 2024 applied to spending on items like restaurant…
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On the Trail of Heffalumps and Woozles — Why Policymakers Are Following the Wrong Tracks
Focusing on institutional investors may overlook the real forces driving home prices and rents1 Canada is not alone in its housing affordability challenges. Similar concerns have emerged in the U.K., Australia and the U.S. The U.S. administration has recently put forward a series of proposals aimed at easing affordability pressures. In a recent statement, the…
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December Employment Data Signals Slowing Growth
Canada’s labour market slowed to close out 2025, with employment rising by just 8,200 in December and the unemployment rate ticking up to 6.8 per cent as more people looked for work. The size of the labour pool is challenging to understand: the adult population increased by only 9,900, meaning a large share of employment…
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Where Did the Starter Home Go?
The traditional ‘starter home’ – a modest detached home with a decent yard – has all but vanished from new construction in most of Canada’s urban centers. What first-time buyers can access today is fundamentally different from what was available to previous generations. From 1945 to 1980, starter homes were everywhere. Think post-war bungalows and…
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U.S. Intervention in Venezuela – Implications for Canadian Oil
The U.S. move to oust Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has sparked speculation that Washington could look to Venezuelan oil to reduce — or even replace — its reliance on Canadian crude oil imports. In practice, however, such a shift would be both difficult and unlikely. While Venezuela holds nearly 18 per cent of the world’s…
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