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Hots Jobs, Cooling Rate Expectations
December brought a wave of surprising employment gains in both the US and Canada, setting the stage for debates around inflation and interest rates. While job growth exceeded expectations in both countries, the implications for monetary policy and broader economic conditions differ for these two economies. US Overview: Strong Jobs, Persistent Inflation, and Market Jitters…
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Should We Replace Development Charges with Property Taxes?
Development charges (DCs) were created to facilitate development by reducing the incentive for current residents to block development based solely on their reluctance to pay for new infrastructure. In this way, DCs can improve economic efficiency. Development charges (DCs) can be considered a windfall tax, but only to the extent that they are paid by…
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Looking Through the Fog: Insights on the US Economic Outlook
The Federal Reserve’s dovish pivot a year ago set the stage for expectations of an aggressive easing cycle, briefly interrupted by a bout of sticky inflation in early 2024. At the time, the upper bound of the federal funds target rate was 5.50 per cent – well above the US central bank’s favored inflation measure…
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Reflecting on 2024: Progress, Partnership, and Possibilities
As we close out another remarkable year, we want to take a moment to express our gratitude to you—our valued partners—for your continued trust and collaboration. Your support has been instrumental in driving progress and achieving meaningful milestones throughout 2024. To thank you for your partnership and recognize our shared commitment to building stronger communities,…
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Is It Time to Bring Back Multi-Unit Condominium Mortgage Insurance?
Condo units under construction are at an all-time high, yet, pre-sales in Toronto are running at a 27-year low. After years of steady price increases, investors are beginning to question whether this is a viable near-term market. A recent Globe and Mail article suggests that investors are fleeing the preconstruction market. Toronto real estate brokerage…
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Does Higher Unemployment Signal a 50 Basis Point Rate Cut?
November’s jobs report delivered mixed signals: while employment growth exceeded expectations, the unemployment rate rose sharply to 6.8 per cent. This surge reflects a significant influx of workers entering the labour market, boosting the participation rate to 65.1 per cent. These dynamics – a higher unemployment rate, a higher participation rate and slowing wage growth…
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Tax Policy Illusions
Many groups have been cast as villains in Canada’s housing affordability narrative—foreign buyers, speculators, investors, and owners of vacant properties have all been blamed for driving up prices. However, recent data from Statistics Canada suggests that when it comes to homeowners who “flipped” their properties, that narrative is full of holes. Statistics Canada analyzed properties…
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