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Sticky Core Inflation Likely to Delay Bank of Canada Rate Cuts
Canadian CPI fell 0.1 per cent month-over-month in April, bringing the headline inflation rate down to 1.7 per cent from 2.3 per cent in March. The decline, slightly less than economists expected, was driven by the removal of the consumer carbon tax at the start of the month and a sharp decline in global oil…
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Will Snowbirds Revive the Canadian Housing Market? Don’t Count on It
A recent Financial Post article speculates we will see a decline in homebuying activity in the US – a trend that’s not surprising given the current political climate, ongoing economic uncertainty, and a relatively weak Canadian dollar. Canadians have long been the dominant foreign buyers in the US housing market. For many in Central Canada,…
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Breaking Down Recent Market Developments
China and the United States have agreed to lower tariffs on goods from each other’s countries for 90 days, offering a temporary reprieve in a trade war that threatens to cause a global recession and deepen a widening rift between the world’s two largest economies. As shown in this chart from the New York Times,…
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Revitalizing the MURB Program – What Past Mistakes Can Teach Us
Rental housing policy has been a persistent challenge in Canada for more than five decades, shaped by two key forces. First, efforts to close federal tax “loopholes” in the early 1970s discouraged private investment in rental housing, making it financially unviable. As a result, private sector participation in rental housing has been negligible for more…
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US Outlook – Weakening Economy Raises Risk of Recession
The most likely scenario for the US economy is a slowdown. Although a downturn as severe as those during the pandemic or the Great Financial Crisis is unlikely, the US economy is losing momentum and is likely to fall into a recession. If economic policies lead to increased trade barriers, reduced immigration, and even larger…
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Vancouver and Toronto Home Sales Likely to Remain Soft in 2025 – But Don’t Expect Major Price Relief
Over the past decade, Canada’s housing market has largely been a tale of two cities: Vancouver and Toronto. These markets have seen prices climb steadily, putting a significant strain on affordability. As detached housing moved out of the reach for average buyers, focus has shifted toward condominiums or housing farther from the urban core. Today,…
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The Collision Course Between Tariffs and the Fed’s Dual Mandate
It is often the case that we see periods of market volatility where there is significant divergence between market expectations for policy and the central bank’s actual stance. The chart below shows how market expectations for Fed rate cuts have evolved this year – specifically, what was priced in by markets on January 2, April…
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