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Canada’s Labour Market Holding Up, but Rising Unemployment a Concern
The Canadian labour market posted a modest gain of 8,800 jobs in May, outperforming economists’ expectations. Private services led the overall growth in employment for the month. So far in 2025, the finance, insurance and real estate sector has accounted for more than 85 per cent of net new job creation. In contrast, weakening business…
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Investors versus Speculators: Redefining Roles in Canada’s Housing Market
A recent Globe and Mail article highlighted a proposal aimed at making it more difficult for investors to buy residential real estate. The report’s author, John Pasalis, a real estate analyst, has long expressed concern about housing affordability and the role that investors – particularly in the Toronto housing market – may play in exacerbating…
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Weathering the Tariff Storm
The Canadian economy appears to have held up better than expected in the early months of the trade war. Real GDP grew at a 2.2 per cent annualized rate in Q1, outperforming the US economy, which posted a decline. This was even a slight improvement over the previous quarter, which was revised downward by half…
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Do House Prices Need to Fall to Restore Housing Affordability?
Canada’s new Minister of Housing and Infrastructure Gregor Robertson has the unenviable task of improving housing affordability. He has attracted criticism for stating that falling housing prices are not necessary to accomplish this goal. For prospective buyers, lower home prices may appear to be the obvious solution, but do we really want a collapse in…
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Bonds – Not So Boring Anymore
US President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful” tax bill was passed by the House of Representatives last Thursday and is headed to the Senate for approval. If it becomes law, the bill will cut taxes and increase spending. While this could provide a near-term boost to the economy, it is expected to increase the federal deficit…
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Government Debt and Housing Finance – It’s Complicated
Moody’s recent downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating (from AAA) sends a clear signal: the country’s fiscal situation is becoming untenable. While this downgrade doesn’t change the US’s overall credit rating – which was already split-rated AA+ – it now brings all three major credit rating agencies into alignment. S&P first downgraded the US…
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Sticky Core Inflation Likely to Delay Bank of Canada Rate Cuts
Canadian CPI fell 0.1 per cent month-over-month in April, bringing the headline inflation rate down to 1.7 per cent from 2.3 per cent in March. The decline, slightly less than economists expected, was driven by the removal of the consumer carbon tax at the start of the month and a sharp decline in global oil…
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