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Warsh at the Helm of the Fed: Process Reform Meets Policy Continuity
With Senator Thom Tillis withdrawing his objection over the weekend following the Department of Justice’s decision to wind down its investigation into Jerome Powell, Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as the next chair of the Federal Reserve now appears all but certain. The U.S. Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to vote on Wednesday, April 29, with full…
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Has the Ontario Housing Market Found the Bottom?
For the longest time, it seemed like the Ontario housing market could only move in one direction. Many had come to assume that housing prices would consistently rise, and that construction activity would remain strong. From 2021 through early 2026, however, the Ontario market moved through a dramatic cycle, shifting from a pandemic-fuelled buying frenzy…
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Are there any Birders at the Bank of Canada?
Ralph Bostic, who recently retired as president of the Atlanta Fed, was known for drawing parallels between birdwatching and central banking—both require making decisions with incomplete data. That challenge is especially relevant in the current environment, as incoming inflation data continues to send mixed signals about underlying price dynamics. March 2026 CPI data confirms a…
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The Long Road to Housing Affordability
Desjardins recently produced a report examining Canada’s homeownership affordability, using its Desjardins Affordability Index (DAI) to assess whether average household disposable income is sufficient to qualify for a mortgage on an average-priced home. The report’s central finding is that while affordability has improved from its 2023 lows, that relief is already fading. The deterioration began…
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How Current Data Could Be Shaping the Bank of Canada’s Outlook
The Bank of Canada’s next scheduled rate announcement is April 29. This meeting will include a Monetary Policy Report outlining its most recent economic projections, along with an assessment of evolving risks. Labour force data released on April 10 was largely in line with expectations and is unlikely to change the Bank’s current economic outlook. …
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Housing Affordability: Is Supply the Only Story?
A major challenge in creating effective housing affordability policies is the lack of consensus on the root causes or the solutions. In Canada, the policy response has largely focused on addressing the shortage of housing supply. However, a recent paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Housing Affordability and Housing Demand, challenges the…
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Rising U.S. Treasury Yields Spill Over into Canada
Three forces dominated U.S. fixed income markets this week: a March employment report that looked strong at first glance, an energy shock from the Iran conflict, and a meaningful repricing of Federal Reserve expectations. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported 178,000 non-farm payrolls in March, well above the market expectation of 59,000. However, the…
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