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A New Regime at the Fed: Warsh, Forward Guidance, and What It Means for Rate Markets
Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve on May 22, marking what he has described as a “regime change” in how the central bank operates and communicates. For mortgage investors, the implications of this shift are significant. Warsh has been explicit and consistent on one point in particular: he…
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U.S. Inflation Rises and Policy Challenges Intensify
U.S. headline inflation accelerated sharply to 3.8 per cent year-over-year in April, reaching its highest level since May 2023 and spilling over to global financial markets. The sharp rise in prices has been driven largely by energy market disruptions stemming from the conflict in Iran, including the closure of the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz….
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Canadian Labour Market Weakens Further in April as Job Losses Broaden
Canadian employment weakened in April, with Statistics Canada reporting a loss of 17,700 jobs against consensus expectations for a modest gain. The decline marks the third monthly contraction in the past four months and brings cumulative job losses since the start of the year to roughly 112,000 — the weakest opening to a year since…
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The Structural Breakdown of Housing Affordability in Toronto and Vancouver
In its April 30 Economic Viewpoint, “Priced Out of the Canadian Dream: The Rise of the Permanent Renter,” Desjardins Senior Economist Kari Norman argues that Toronto and Vancouver have crossed a structural threshold where a return to broad-based homeownership for the middle class may no longer be attainable. The report frames these markets as global…
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Canadian Real GDP Rises Slightly in February
Canadian real GDP edged up 0.2 per cent in February, in line with consensus expectations and Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimate. Goods-producing industries rose 0.4 per cent, led by gains in manufacturing (+1.8 per cent) and mining, quarrying, and oil and gas (+0.4 per cent), which more than offset declines in agriculture (–1.3 per cent) and…
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Nova Scotia First-time Homebuyers Program – A Cautionary Tale
Launched on February 3, 2026, Nova Scotia’s First-time Homebuyers Program allows for a significantly reduced minimum down payment, from 5 per cent down to just 2 per cent, for a four-year pilot. Below, we break down the program design, compare it with Australia’s recently expanded 5 per cent Deposit Scheme, and assess what a Cotality study…
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Warsh at the Helm of the Fed: Process Reform Meets Policy Continuity
With Senator Thom Tillis withdrawing his objection over the weekend following the Department of Justice’s decision to wind down its investigation into Jerome Powell, Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as the next chair of the Federal Reserve now appears all but certain. The U.S. Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to vote on Wednesday, April 29, with full…
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