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Mixed Inflation Results Will Keep the Bank of Canada Sidelined
Headline CPI inflation edged up slightly to 2.4 per cent year-over-year (y/y) in December, coming in slightly above consensus expectations. The uptick largely reflects base effects from lower prices a year earlier, when the federal government implemented a brief sales tax holiday. The temporary GST/HST exemption in December 2024 applied to spending on items like restaurant…
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On the Trail of Heffalumps and Woozles — Why Policymakers Are Following the Wrong Tracks
Focusing on institutional investors may overlook the real forces driving home prices and rents1 Canada is not alone in its housing affordability challenges. Similar concerns have emerged in the U.K., Australia and the U.S. The U.S. administration has recently put forward a series of proposals aimed at easing affordability pressures. In a recent statement, the…
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December Employment Data Signals Slowing Growth
Canada’s labour market slowed to close out 2025, with employment rising by just 8,200 in December and the unemployment rate ticking up to 6.8 per cent as more people looked for work. The size of the labour pool is challenging to understand: the adult population increased by only 9,900, meaning a large share of employment…
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Where Did the Starter Home Go?
The traditional ‘starter home’ – a modest detached home with a decent yard – has all but vanished from new construction in most of Canada’s urban centers. What first-time buyers can access today is fundamentally different from what was available to previous generations. From 1945 to 1980, starter homes were everywhere. Think post-war bungalows and…
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U.S. Intervention in Venezuela – Implications for Canadian Oil
The U.S. move to oust Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has sparked speculation that Washington could look to Venezuelan oil to reduce — or even replace — its reliance on Canadian crude oil imports. In practice, however, such a shift would be both difficult and unlikely. While Venezuela holds nearly 18 per cent of the world’s…
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Fed Resumes Treasury Purchases — But Don’t Call It Quantitative Easing
At its latest policy meeting, the Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected interest rate cut, but the more significant policy development was its move to resume purchases of Treasury securities. The central bank will buy roughly $20 billion in Treasury bills each month, with the aim of ensuring reserve balances grow in line with nominal…
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Untangling Agency Roles to Improve Canada’s National Housing Strategy
Canada’s National Housing Strategy (NHS) is a 10-year, $115+ billion plan launched in 2017 to improve access to safe, affordable, and inclusive housing. Its priorities are to: Improve housing outcomes for people in greatest need Create and renew housing supply across the country Reduce homelessness and core housing need Under the NHS, the federal government…
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