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Tariffs Take a Bite Out of Q2 GDP
The Q2 GDP release offered the first real look at how the Canadian economy is coping with tariffs. The economy contracted by 1.6 per cent quarter-over-quarter annualized – a steeper decline than market consensus, but just a hair below the Bank of Canada’s forecast of -1.5 per cent. Net exports accounted for 8.1 percentage points…
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Monetary Policy and Housing Affordability: Avoiding the Boom-Bust Cycle
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem says the central bank will examine how its policies affect housing demand and affordability as part of its 2026 framework renewal. When the Bank of Canada adopted its 2 per cent inflation target, it focused on a symmetric approach: If inflation was running above or below 2 per cent,…
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Powell Signals a Path to Rate Cuts
Last week marked the 48th Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming — a key gathering of central bankers, policymakers, and economists from around the world. Originally centered on policy presentations, the event has evolved into a forum for the Federal Reserve Chairman to deliver major policy announcements. In his address, Chair Jerome Powell focused…
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Reviewing the Builder Alliance Pre-Budget Proposal: Part Two – Secondary Recommendations
The Large Urban Centre Alliance, representing home builders and rental providers from cities that account for more than 50 per cent of Canada’s annual housing starts, has presented a set of housing recommendations ahead of the federal government’s pre-budget consultations. The proposal includes four primary and four secondary recommendations. Last week, we examined the primary…
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Headline Inflation Improving, Core Inflation Remains High
Canadian consumer prices rose 0.3 per cent in July, bringing the annual inflation rate to 1.7 per cent. While the headline figure looks tame, core inflation remains sticky, with the Bank of Canada’s two preferred measures – median and trim – holding around 3 per cent for the fourth consecutive month. Median prices rose 3.1…
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Reviewing the Builder Alliance Pre-Budget Proposal: Part One – Primary Recommendations
The Large Urban Centre Alliance, representing home builders and rental providers from cities that account for more than 50 per cent of Canada’s annual housing starts, has presented a set of housing proposals ahead of the federal government’s pre-budge consultations. The proposal includes four primary and four secondary recommendations. The primary recommendations are: Provide a…
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A Noisy Labour Market Report: Making Sense of June and July’s Contrasting Data
The Canadian labour market gave back half of June’s surprising gains in July, shedding 41,000 jobs versus the consensus forecast of a 10,000 increase. Despite this decline, the unemployment rate remained unchanged as the labour force participation rate fell. Longer-term trends, reflected in the 3- and 6- month employment changes of 17,000 and 5,000 respectively,…
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