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Bank of Canada Stuck on Pause
January employment data came in stronger than expected with a gain of 37,000 jobs and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 5.7%. While the headline was positive, the details paint a more complex picture. Most of the job gains were in part-time positions, while full-time employment declined. Private sector employment saw modest growth…
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Canada’s Foreign Buyer Ban – Prudent Policy or Political Theatre?
The federal government has extended the ban on foreign purchases of homes across most of the country by two years, prolonging the existing ban that was set to expire at the end of this calendar year. This decision comes amidst ongoing controversy surrounding the topic. CMHC and other agencies have historically lacked comprehensive records of…
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Reading the Tea Leaves on the Fed’s Policy Decision
Much of understanding central bankers is interpreting changes in their policy statements. As expected, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) left its policy rate unchanged and maintained the current pace of quantitative tightening in its January meeting. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), however, made significant changes to the policy statement, suggesting an upward revision in…
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Improving Affordability by Financing Infrastructure More Efficiently
Canada’s federal government has a long history of involvement in municipal infrastructure assistance. In 1938, the government passed the Municipal Improvements Assistance Act, which facilitated loans from 1938 to 1940, primarily aimed at addressing unemployment by supporting sewage and water improvement projects. It was in this spirit of generating employment and economic growth, as well…
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When Will the Fed Declare Victory on Inflation?
The U.S. economic expansion shows no sign of abating. With strong consumer spending, a solid labour market, and inflation at the doorstep of price stability, the outlook is solid. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is calling for Q1 growth of 3%, following growth of 3.3% in the fourth quarter. It is looking more likely…
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Clarity on the Expanded Canada Mortgage Bond (CMB) Program
In the 2023 Fall Economic Statement, the government announced that it would purchase $30 billion of Canada Mortgage Bonds (CMBs). This commitment followed an earlier statement that it would increase the annual issuance limit from $40 to $60 billion. The primary objective of this initiative is to offer affordable funds to developers for the construction…
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What to Expect from the Economy in 2024
Relief from rising interest rates is finally in sight. Bond yields have started to fall and major central banks are expected to cut their policy interest rates in the coming months. Against this backdrop, what can we expect from the US and Canadian economy in 2024? Below we offer our thoughts. US Outlook The U.S….
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