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The Case for Patience: Why the Bank of Canada Should Wait to Raise Rates
Markets expect a Bank of Canada rate increase this Wednesday, largely on the strength of Governor Tiff Macklem’s remarks at the IMF meetings, where he flagged growing risks of broader and more persistent inflation. The signal deserves to be taken seriously. Yet the underlying data do not yet make a compelling case for tightening, and…
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Distilling the Next Fed Move
We expect the FOMC to hold the federal funds target range at 3.75–4.00 percent next week, but the risk of a 25 bp increase is materially higher than markets imply. Fed funds futures assign roughly a 17 percent probability to an October move; we place it nearer 25–35 percent. December remains the most likely date…
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Growing Pains: Edmonton’s Infill Rules Need Refinement, Not Repeal
Crestwood: the eightplexes that became the face of the infill backlash. Source: Edmonton Journal If one image captures Edmonton’s infill backlash, it is this one. In Crestwood, a mature west-central neighbourhood, two three-storey eightplexes went up on either side of an established single-family home, turning its backyard into a canyon. For opponents, the development was…
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Weaker Employment Gives the Bank of Canada Reason to Hold
Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey for September points to a labour market that has lost momentum. Employment fell for a second consecutive month, the unemployment rate edged higher and hiring remains slow. However, the weakness is concentrated in the public sector, and the regional picture is sharply divided, with Alberta accounting for most of the…
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Should Tax Policy Be Used to Address Housing Affordability?
Housing developers are lobbying Ottawa for tax changes that would allow buyers of new homes to deduct mortgage interest from their taxable income. Under Canada’s Income Tax Act, homeowners can deduct mortgage interest for rental properties, but not for their principal residences. The proposal is loosely based on the U.S. mortgage interest deduction. In the…
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The U.K.’s Social and Affordable Homes Programme – A Different Approach
Housing affordability is not a Canada-centric problem. The U.S., U.K., and Australia face similar challenges, but the U.K. is taking a different approach. Its Social and Affordable Homes Programme (SAHP), announced in the 2025 Spending Review, commits £39 billion (approximately C$73 billion) over ten years (2026–2036) to support the largest expansion of council and social…
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The Global Bond Market’s New Reality and What It Means for Canada
The world’s government bond markets have spent the summer and early fall undergoing their sharpest repricing since the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. Long-term yields across the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, and much of Europe have climbed to multi-year, and in some cases multi-decade, highs. So far, however, most analysts describe the…
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