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The Powell Pivot
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell laid out the groundwork for the next phase of monetary policy in his speech last Friday. He indicated that the Fed is ready to lower interest rates as inflation moves closer to the central bank’s 2% target and the labour market shows signs of cooling. Powell also expressed confidence that…
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Condo Conundrums
The Toronto condo market remains puzzling to most observers. Despite having nearly six months’ worth of inventory, price declines have been modest. The market is in buyer’s territory, but prices have been relatively flat – down just 3% year-over-year in July. The number of active condo listings has been increasing since early 2022. Active listings…
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Subdued Housing Markets Await Further Rate Relief
Canadian housing market patterns remained subdued in July as the interest rate cut at the end of the month did little to encourage buyers back into the market. MLS home sales held steady in July, according to the latest data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). Total sales slipped 0.7% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year …
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Cracks in the Foundation – Examining the Condo Development Model
Every level of government has pledged to deliver more housing. Until recently, new rental housing supply came primarily from condominium development. In this article, we’ll examine the development process at a high level and explore what legal recourse can tell us about the status of distressed projects. The development cycle for condominiums typically spans five…
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Falling Labour Force Participation Keeps Unemployment Rate in Check
In July, Canadian employment slid by 2,800, adding to the decline in June. Despite the drop, the unemployment rate held steady at 6.4% due to a significant month-over-month decline of 0.3% in the participation rate. If the participation rate had remained unchanged, the increase in population would have pushed the unemployment rate to 6.7%. Full-time…
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Letting Go of Risk
Effective June 19, 2023, CMHC increased its mortgage loan insurance premium rates for multi-unit properties. The premium rates will increase by 1.55% for MLI Select (multi-unit residential) properties and either 0.85% or 0.75% for standard rental housing, retirement and supportive housing, and student housing/single room occupancy (SRO) properties. These changes reflect CMHC’s adoption of the…
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Will the Fed be Bullied into a 50-Basis Point Cut?
The US unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 4.3% in July, which triggered the Sahm Rule. This rule links the start of a recession to when the three-month moving average of the jobless rate rises at least half a percentage point above its low from the past 12 months. As a result, market…
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