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The Collision Course Between Tariffs and the Fed’s Dual Mandate
It is often the case that we see periods of market volatility where there is significant divergence between market expectations for policy and the central bank’s actual stance. The chart below shows how market expectations for Fed rate cuts have evolved this year – specifically, what was priced in by markets on January 2, April…
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Is the Federal Government Capable of Building Homes?
In 2017, CMHC presented a National Housing Strategy – a 10-year, $115 billion plan to “ensure everyone in Canada has access to housing that meets their needs and that they can afford.” Eight years later, housing supply and housing affordability remain key election issues for Canadians. The Liberal plan harkens back to post-war efforts focused…
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Central Bank Independence – Why It Matters For Long-Term Market Stability
Former Federal Reserve Chair Willian McChesney Martin famously said the central bank’s role was to “take away the punch bowl just as the party gets going” – in other words, to tighten policy just as stocks start to boom and the economy risks overheating. For central banks to serve as this counterbalance, they must be…
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A Plan for Real Housing Progress
Over the past two weeks, we’ve explored both the Conservative and Liberal plans for affordable housing. This week, we shift our focus to what a truly comprehensive housing strategy should look like. There are no silver bullets that will immediately solve Canada’s housing crisis. It’s a problem that has been decades in the making —…
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Breaking Down Last Week’s US Bond Market Activity
There have been huge swings in the US stock market lately, but bond markets have not moved as expected. Typically, treasuries benefit during periods of uncertainty, as investors flock to safer assets. However, last Friday saw falling bond prices pushed the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield briefly above 4.5 per cent up, from 3.99 per cent…
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The Conservative Housing Plan – The Difference is in the Details
Last week, we looked at the Liberal Housing Plan. This week, we turn our attention to the Conservative Housing Plan. The Conservatives have outlined five key housing-related priorities: Cutting the GST on new homes Unlocking federal land for housing development Creating incentives for municipalities to accelerate homebuilding Expanding the skilled trades workforce Introducing capital gains…
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Tariffs: America’s Economic Own Goal
Last week, President Trump announced sweeping tariffs—25 per cent on all automotive imports into the US, alongside a blanket 10 per cent tariff on all incoming goods, with some countries facing even steeper “reciprocal tariffs.” The fallout has been swift. In 2023, average tariffs levied by other countries on the US were 4.6 per cent…
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