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Stronger Than Expected Labour Market Unlikely to Push Rates Higher
The Canadian jobs market has followed a sawtooth pattern this year, with soft months followed by an uptick. This trend continued through the summer, with August job gains coming on the heels of losses in July. While the most recent data suggests a slight rebound in the labour market, the gains are not strong enough…
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Weaker GDP Should Convince the Bank to Hold on Rates
After a strong start to 2023, the Canadian economy appears to be slowing rapidly. Instead of the 1.2% (annualized) growth analysts expected in Q2, the Canadian economy contracted by 0.2%. This unexpected decline in gross domestic product (GDP) aligns with the recent rise in unemployment and suggests the Canadian economy may already have fallen into…
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Interest Rate Peak: Are We There Yet?
Canadian homeowners grappling with rising prices and mounting mortgage payments want to know when central banks will stop raising interest rates. The labour market may provide a clue. US Outlook US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at the recent Jackson Hole Economic Symposium provide some insight into what central bankers are thinking. For the…
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Could the Missing Middle be the Solution to Canada’s Housing Crisis?
The factors leading to Canada’s housing crisis are as varied as the potential solutions. The most pressing challenges are faced by Canada’s largest cities, where intensification strategies must be feasible in a way that is acceptable to existing residents. Urban planners have been focused on the ‘missing middle’ – medium-density housing somewhere between single-family residential…
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Is a Slowing Global Economy Enough to Cool Core Inflation?
Last week saw some market movements – the TSX rose a half of a percent on higher oil prices, and yields were up a few of basis points across the yield curve – but it was a quiet week otherwise. Statistics Canada’s update on international trade and investment activity was the only data release for…
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Rates Increases Finally Taking Hold
Recent data releases provide the surest sign yet that the spate of interest rate hikes since last spring are finally having their intended impact. While real gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.3% in May, the more telling data is the June estimate, which points to a contraction. Estimates indicate real GDP fell 0.2% for the…
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Canadian Retail Sales Stalling as Higher Rates Take a Bite
After showing strength in late 2022 and early 2023, consumer spending appears to be stalling. Retail sales were flat in June, based on preliminary estimates from Statistics Canada. That followed a 0.2% increase the previous month, falling short of the 0.5% increase economics were expecting. This slowing in consumption is more pronounced after adjusting for…
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