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Revitalizing the MURB Program – What Past Mistakes Can Teach Us
Rental housing policy has been a persistent challenge in Canada for more than five decades, shaped by two key forces. First, efforts to close federal tax “loopholes” in the early 1970s discouraged private investment in rental housing, making it financially unviable. As a result, private sector participation in rental housing has been negligible for more…
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US Outlook – Weakening Economy Raises Risk of Recession
The most likely scenario for the US economy is a slowdown. Although a downturn as severe as those during the pandemic or the Great Financial Crisis is unlikely, the US economy is losing momentum and is likely to fall into a recession. If economic policies lead to increased trade barriers, reduced immigration, and even larger…
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Vancouver and Toronto Home Sales Likely to Remain Soft in 2025 – But Don’t Expect Major Price Relief
Over the past decade, Canada’s housing market has largely been a tale of two cities: Vancouver and Toronto. These markets have seen prices climb steadily, putting a significant strain on affordability. As detached housing moved out of the reach for average buyers, focus has shifted toward condominiums or housing farther from the urban core. Today,…
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The Collision Course Between Tariffs and the Fed’s Dual Mandate
It is often the case that we see periods of market volatility where there is significant divergence between market expectations for policy and the central bank’s actual stance. The chart below shows how market expectations for Fed rate cuts have evolved this year – specifically, what was priced in by markets on January 2, April…
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Is the Federal Government Capable of Building Homes?
In 2017, CMHC presented a National Housing Strategy – a 10-year, $115 billion plan to “ensure everyone in Canada has access to housing that meets their needs and that they can afford.” Eight years later, housing supply and housing affordability remain key election issues for Canadians. The Liberal plan harkens back to post-war efforts focused…
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Central Bank Independence – Why It Matters For Long-Term Market Stability
Former Federal Reserve Chair Willian McChesney Martin famously said the central bank’s role was to “take away the punch bowl just as the party gets going” – in other words, to tighten policy just as stocks start to boom and the economy risks overheating. For central banks to serve as this counterbalance, they must be…
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A Plan for Real Housing Progress
Over the past two weeks, we’ve explored both the Conservative and Liberal plans for affordable housing. This week, we shift our focus to what a truly comprehensive housing strategy should look like. There are no silver bullets that will immediately solve Canada’s housing crisis. It’s a problem that has been decades in the making —…
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