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The Changing Tariff Landscape
The US and Europe have reached a preliminary trade agreement that is very similar to the recent US-Japan deal. Under the terms, tariffs on European steel remain at 50 per cent, while a 15 per cent tariff applies to other imports. That agreement is positioned halfway between the previously threatened 30 per cent reciprocal tariff…
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We Need Better Housing Data – Not Puff Pieces – From CMHC
The pressing need to increase housing supply in cities has received sustained attention as policymakers search for solutions to the housing affordability crisis. CMHC recently updated its estimate on the number of housing starts “required” to alleviate the housing shortage. While the specific figures have changed, the core message remains the same: there isn’t enough…
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The Politics Around US Interest Rates
President Trump is continuing to press the Federal Reserve for major rate cuts, recently demanding that rates be lowered to match the European Central Bank (ECB). While the Administration may want more aggressive easing, the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) appears much more cautious. Even its two most dovish members are projecting just three 25…
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A HAF-Baked Plan
In 2023, the federal government introduced the Housing Accelerator Fund (HAF) to speed up housing development. Unlike previous programs, Ottawa chose to negotiate these agreements directly with municipalities rather than working through the provinces and territories. While this approach may have offered more favourable optics for Members of Parliament, it overlooked the absence of infrastructure…
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Strong Jobs Report Meets Trade Headwinds: What’s Next for Canada’s Economy?
The June labour report delivered an encouraging sign that Canadian businesses and the economy have remained resilient amidst early-year trade uncertainty. Employment rose by 83,100 jobs – significantly higher than the market expected. The only weak spot was that most of the gains came from part-time positions. While the country recorded a strong hiring gain,…
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Mid-Year Musings on US Markets: Trends that Matter to Canadian Mortgage Investors
Despite ongoing uncertainty and shifting policy signals, US financial markets outperformed expectations in the first half of the year. The S&P 500 delivered a 7.5 per cent total return, while 10-year Treasuries rallied to deliver a 4.2 per cent year-to-date return as yields fell 23 basis points. US market dynamics continue to influence investor sentiment,…
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Mixed Economic Signals Likely to Keep Bank of Canada on Hold
The Bank of Canada’s next interest rate decision is set for July 30. Some market watchers believe the Bank should be cutting another 25 to 50 basis points this year, while others argue no further cuts are needed. Ultimately, the Bank’s decision will hinge on how growth, employment and core inflation evolve over the coming…
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