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Lower Rates? It Depends on Where You Look
While much of the current discussion around interest rates is focused on potential cuts in Canada and the US, it’s important not to overlook the longer end of the yield curve. Central banks can influence the short end, but further out, concerns around fiscal policy and inflation are built into the risk premium. Recently, longer-term…
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Australia’s Home Guarantee Scheme – Part 2: Would It Work in Canada?
As part of its broader approach to housing affordability, Australia helps first-time buyers enter the market faster through its Home Guarantee Scheme, with programs tailored to different types of buyers. In part one, we broke down the scheme’s key programs and potential market implications. In part two below, we examine whether a similar approach could…
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Jobs and Inflation – What Matters Most for the Mortgage Market
Canada’s labour market is deteriorating, with roughly 100,000 jobs lost over the past 2 months. Employment fell by 65,500 in August – significantly weaker than expected – marking a second consecutive month of decline and the steepest drop since the pandemic. The unemployment rate climbed to 7.1 per cent, its highest level since May 2016…
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Australia’s Home Guarantee Scheme – Part One: Supporting First-Time Buyers
Canada is not alone in facing affordability challenges. Sweden, Norway, Australia, New Zealand and, more recently, the US are also grappling with a housing crisis. The average price of an Australian home has surpassed A$1m for the first time, highlighting the nation’s struggle with affordability. According to estimates released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics…
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Tariffs Take a Bite Out of Q2 GDP
The Q2 GDP release offered the first real look at how the Canadian economy is coping with tariffs. The economy contracted by 1.6 per cent quarter-over-quarter annualized – a steeper decline than market consensus, but just a hair below the Bank of Canada’s forecast of -1.5 per cent. Net exports accounted for 8.1 percentage points…
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Monetary Policy and Housing Affordability: Avoiding the Boom-Bust Cycle
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem says the central bank will examine how its policies affect housing demand and affordability as part of its 2026 framework renewal. When the Bank of Canada adopted its 2 per cent inflation target, it focused on a symmetric approach: If inflation was running above or below 2 per cent,…
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Powell Signals a Path to Rate Cuts
Last week marked the 48th Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming — a key gathering of central bankers, policymakers, and economists from around the world. Originally centered on policy presentations, the event has evolved into a forum for the Federal Reserve Chairman to deliver major policy announcements. In his address, Chair Jerome Powell focused…
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