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Mid-Year Musings on US Markets: Trends that Matter to Canadian Mortgage Investors
Despite ongoing uncertainty and shifting policy signals, US financial markets outperformed expectations in the first half of the year. The S&P 500 delivered a 7.5 per cent total return, while 10-year Treasuries rallied to deliver a 4.2 per cent year-to-date return as yields fell 23 basis points. US market dynamics continue to influence investor sentiment,…
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Mixed Economic Signals Likely to Keep Bank of Canada on Hold
The Bank of Canada’s next interest rate decision is set for July 30. Some market watchers believe the Bank should be cutting another 25 to 50 basis points this year, while others argue no further cuts are needed. Ultimately, the Bank’s decision will hinge on how growth, employment and core inflation evolve over the coming…
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Housing Delivery: Getting the Small Stuff Right
Ontario’s new Planning Act came into effect in 2024. Under the previous system, developers were required to provide irrevocable letters of credit (LOCs) or other forms of direct collateral to municipalities to guarantee the completion of work. This tied up the developer’s credit facility — if a $2 million LOC was issued, that amount would…
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Mounting Global Risks Deepen Monetary Policy Uncertainty
In the 1980s and early 1990s, Canada had a serious inflation problem. The inflation rate hit double digits in the 1980s, but under Governor John Crow’s leadership, the Bank of Canada succeeded in bringing it down to below 2 per cent by 1992. An enduring lesson from that period is that when inflation is not…
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Does the GST Rebate on Housing Go Far Enough?
Under current law, the sale of newly constructed or substantially renovated residential housing is subject to a 5 per cent federal sales tax through the Goods and Services Tax/Harmonized Sales Tax (GST/HST). The GST/HST New Housing Rebate allows Canadian citizens and permanent residents to recover a portion of the tax paid for a new or…
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Better US Inflation Reading, but No Rate Relief Just Yet
The US inflation rate was fairly benign in the latest reading, with both the headline and core numbers increasing just 0.1 per cent – better than market expectations. While weaker gasoline and energy prices were expected, the surprise came from softer services and housing inflation, which were key drivers of the lower inflation print. While…
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Investors versus Speculators: Redefining Roles in Canada’s Housing Market
A recent Globe and Mail article highlighted a proposal aimed at making it more difficult for investors to buy residential real estate. The report’s author, John Pasalis, a real estate analyst, has long expressed concern about housing affordability and the role that investors – particularly in the Toronto housing market – may play in exacerbating…
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