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A Noisy Labour Market Report: Making Sense of June and July’s Contrasting Data
The Canadian labour market gave back half of June’s surprising gains in July, shedding 41,000 jobs versus the consensus forecast of a 10,000 increase. Despite this decline, the unemployment rate remained unchanged as the labour force participation rate fell. Longer-term trends, reflected in the 3- and 6- month employment changes of 17,000 and 5,000 respectively,…
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Unlocking Affordable Housing in Plain Sight
Deeply affordable housing has not been built at scale in Canada for some time. Today, less than 5 per cent of the housing stock would qualify as deeply affordable, non-market housing. According to CMHC’s Social and Affordable Housing Survey (SAH), there are roughly 593,000 subsidized housing units across the country — most with rents supported…
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Behind the Jobs Report – The Word of the Day is Caution
The US Federal Reserve’s dual mandate – to balance inflation targeting and maximum employment – means that every shift in labour market data is closely watched for clues about the future path of interest rates. At first blush, the latest job report might appear to suggest the Fed is gearing up to ease rates. However,…
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Stick to Your Knitting: Why Government Should Focus on Its Core Competencies in Housing
During the federal election campaign, then-candidate and now Prime Minister Mark Carney pledged that the government would act as a developer to build affordable housing, spur innovation in the housing sector and offer low-cost financing to affordable-housing builders. He promised a “lean, mission-driven organization” focused on increasing supply by leveraging public lands and partnering with…
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The Changing Tariff Landscape
The US and Europe have reached a preliminary trade agreement that is very similar to the recent US-Japan deal. Under the terms, tariffs on European steel remain at 50 per cent, while a 15 per cent tariff applies to other imports. That agreement is positioned halfway between the previously threatened 30 per cent reciprocal tariff…
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We Need Better Housing Data – Not Puff Pieces – From CMHC
The pressing need to increase housing supply in cities has received sustained attention as policymakers search for solutions to the housing affordability crisis. CMHC recently updated its estimate on the number of housing starts “required” to alleviate the housing shortage. While the specific figures have changed, the core message remains the same: there isn’t enough…
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The Politics Around US Interest Rates
President Trump is continuing to press the Federal Reserve for major rate cuts, recently demanding that rates be lowered to match the European Central Bank (ECB). While the Administration may want more aggressive easing, the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) appears much more cautious. Even its two most dovish members are projecting just three 25…
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