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Is a 50-Basis-Point Cut in the Cards for October?
Canadian real GDP managed to rise 0.2 per cent in July, slightly better than expected, but the early read for August points to no growth, according to Friday’s data release from Statistics Canada. Assuming some GDP growth in September, this suggests annualized growth for the third quarter of around 1.3 – 1.4 per cent. This…
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Is it Time to Revamp Canadian Housing Policy?
Federal housing policy has two critical issues to tackle: addressing high housing costs facing middle-income Canadians and ensuring adequate housing for lower-income individuals and families. These are two distinct problems that require different solutions, as lower-income and middle class Canadians face different affordability hurdles. The shortage of housing for lower-income households is often addressed through…
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The Fed Cuts Rates by 50 Basis Points – What’s Next?
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the policy-setting body of the Federal Reserve, cut policy rates by 50 basis points, lowering the target range for the fed funds rate to 4.75 per cent to 5 per cent. I was surprised to see such a significant cut, as it risks signalling that the Fed is concerned…
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Is It Time to Lower Rates More Aggressively?
For the first time in over three years, headline inflation has returned to 2 per cent, down significantly from 2.5 per cent in July. Core inflation measures are all trending at or below 2.5 per cent over 3- and 6-month periods. Excluding mortgage interest costs, the year-over-year inflation rate was only 1.2 per cent, while…
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Bold Mortgage Reforms? Perhaps, But Further Action May be Necessary
The federal government has just announced two major policy changes for insured mortgages to support first-time home buyers, calling them the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades.” First, the price cap on insured mortgages is being increased from $1 million to $1.5 million, a limit that has been in place since 2012. Second, the eligibility for…
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What Lurks Beneath – The Hidden Infrastructure Crisis
A key responsibility of city administration is to provide and maintain infrastructure. While the condition of our roadways is visible as we drive on them, our water and sewer systems are hidden from view. These aging systems are in dire need of upgrading, and as recent events in Calgary and Montreal have shown, they can…
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Growing Signs of Economic Slack
Canada’s labour market added 22,000 jobs in August, roughly in line with expectations, with all gains coming from part-time job positions (+66,000) following losses in July. Full-time employment fell by 44,000. Labour force growth (+82,500), driven by strong population growth (+96,000), outpaced job gains, pushing the unemployment rate to 6.6 per cent – the highest…
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