A recent Financial Post article speculates we will see a decline in homebuying activity in the US – a trend that’s not surprising given the current political climate, ongoing economic uncertainty, and a relatively weak Canadian dollar.
Canadians have long been the dominant foreign buyers in the US housing market. For many in Central Canada, places like Florida offer a warm escape from harsh Canadian winters, all within a reasonable travel distance. The same goes for Western Canadians, who often gravitate toward Arizona, California, and Hawaii.
During the 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath, a stronger Canadian dollar combined with a depressed US housing market created a prime buying opportunity for Canadians. Since then, home prices have appreciated while the loonie has weakened, making those properties worth much more today than when they were purchased.
Financing these homes has not always been easy. Most Canadians likely relied on a combination of savings, investment proceeds, and lines of credit secured against their Canadian homes. But with recent changes to HELOC (home equity line of credit) rules and a more expensive US housing market, buying a vacation home south of the border has become even more difficult.
Canadian home-buying activity in the US
Source: National Association of Realtors
While Florida clearly has seen the highest volume of Canadian buyer activity, we would expect to see a falloff in activity as property insurance costs continue to surge. Homeowner insurance premiums have increased 20 per cent across the US, with the sharpest increases in Louisiana and California due to natural disasters. Florida, however, is projected to have the highest average premium in 2025 at US$15,460. In Hialeah, Florida, the average premium is even higher at $26,693 – the most expensive in the country.
Rising premium costs – along with mortgage insurers expanding the list of condo buildings they won’t lend on due to insurance and maintenance issues – have added risk for buyers entering the US housing market. As of March, 696 buildings in Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties were on Fannie Mae’s ineligible list. While this isn’t exclusive to Florida, it’s been a growing issue there since the 2021 collapse of the Champlain Towers South condominium in Surfside. Unsurprisingly, Canadian property purchases in the US have been on a downward trend over the last five years.
Source: National Association of Realtors
Even if we see Canadians selling their US properties, it’s unlikely to translate into increased buying activity in Canada. The primary purpose of these homes was to escape the Canadian winter – staying local doesn’t accomplish that goal. More likely, snowbirds will look to other warm-weather destinations, either for vacations or to purchase property. After all, they didn’t choose to buy a second property in Canada the first time – why would they now?
Independent Opinion
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