Canada’s housing market appears to have found a floor, as recent resale data suggest homebuying activity is picking up after a weak start to the year. June data show existing home sales rose 0.9 per cent from a year earlier and 0.5 per cent from May on a seasonally adjusted basis, while new listings fell 1.3 per cent during the month. That combination has kept the market close to balanced, with the national sales-to-new-listings ratio edging up to 50.2 per cent and months of inventory holding at 4.8, near the long-term average. The national benchmark price was down 3.4 per cent year over year, but the pace of decline has slowed sharply, from nearly seven per cent earlier in the year to a decline of 0.7 per cent on a three-month annualized basis, suggesting prices are stabilizing rather than continuing to correct.
Regionally, some of the markets that were previously among the weakest are showing the strongest improvement. Home sales in Vancouver and Toronto both rose 9.4 per cent from a year earlier, alongside gains across many smaller Southern Ontario markets, as conditions move closer to balance and price declines moderate. Montreal moved in the opposite direction, with sales down 3.9 per cent from May even as average prices rose 1.6 per cent in June. With new listings up 2.9 per cent, buyers may find more choice and less competition this summer. Quebec and most other major markets remained broadly balanced, based on sales-to-new-listings ratios. Alberta’s housing market has shifted from strength to softness, with Calgary and Edmonton pulling back from recent highs, while Atlantic Canada remains relatively tight despite weaker sales activity.
Stable borrowing costs are helping support demand, while improving affordability in Canada’s priciest markets appears to be drawing some buyers back from the sidelines. That said, ongoing economic uncertainty and a shrinking population — Canada’s population fell 0.2 per cent year over year in the first quarter of 2026 — are likely to limit the pace of any recovery in the near term.
On the supply side, housing starts fell for a third consecutive month to 239,000 annualized units, with condo and homeownership starts in major markets now at their lowest levels since the 2009 recession, even as rental starts remain near record highs. Policy measures are expected to help offset some of this weakness. Reduced development charges in some municipalities, GST/HST relief on new homes for eligible buyers, and CMHC financing programs for purpose-built rental construction should help keep homebuilding activity stronger than the current economic backdrop and modest population declines would otherwise suggest.
Bottom line: Stable sales, listings, and prices suggest the market has found a floor but is unlikely to see a strong rebound in the near term, with policy support helping to cushion supply-side pressures.
Independent Opinion
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